Effect of COVID-19 mortality on life expectancy in municipalities of Mexico. Comparison between 2019 and 2020

Felipe J. Uribe-Salas, Departamento de Estudios de Población, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Piedras Negras, Coahuila, México
Gerardo Núñez-Medina, Departamento de Estudios de Población, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Piedras Negras, Coahuila, México
Juan Parra-Ávila, Oficina Regional. El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Piedras Negras, Coahuila, México

Background: Life expectancy (LE) is an indicator related to medical, demographic, social and geographic conditions. Objectives: To analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on LE and of its distribution according to sociodemographic variables in municipalities of Mexico. Methods: Information on mortality was collected from data published by the Ministry of Health, and demographic information from the 2020 Population and Housing Census. LE was calculated according to the standard actuarial method. A risk analysis was carried out between expected years of life lost and the size of the population, economically active population, years of education and indigenous-speaking population. Results: In 2020, there was a nationwide average drop of 4.7 years in LE, but its distribution was heterogeneous at the municipal level, with extreme values of -2.8 years and 12.6 years. The risk analysis showed an inverse relationship between sociodemographic variables and expected years of life lost, except for the indigenous-speaking population. Conclusions: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on LE in Mexico was significant, and was influenced by the analyzed sociodemographic variables, particularly by the municipalities’ population size.

Keywords: COVID-19. Life expectancy. Mexico. Mortality. Municipalities.